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Rising Political and Security Challenges in Ecuador

Overview

SafeAbroad analysts have assessed that the recent security and political developments in Ecuador pose a moderate risk for travelers. Both of these problems have been assessed separately in terms of their current state, their likelihood of affecting tourists, and their outlook. Crime, largely driven by organized criminal groups, and political protests have degraded the safety environment which has led to the government responding with tougher measures.

Key Takeaways 

  1. Violent crime rates have substantially risen this year throughout the country. Ecuador has the highest homicide rate in Latin America and it continues to increase. Kidnappings have also become a common source of criminal revenue. Criminal groups have recently started employing terrorist tactics to cause terror and damage infrastructure. 
  2. Political turmoil, mainly violent protests and riots, are contributing to Ecuador’s rising instability. Protests have resulted in many participants being detained, injured, and in some cases dying. The protests have mostly been contained to 12 provinces, mainly in the northern part of the country. President Daniel Noboa has responded to these protests and incidents by issuing states of emergency and using the military to quell the instances of violence.
  3. Despite recent trends, Ecuador is still a relatively safe country to visit for American travelers. Cases of U.S. citizens being victims of crime in Ecuador remains rare. Common tourist destinations, including the capital Quito, are relatively safe for tourists when proper precautions are taken. Crimes against tourists are low compared to other cities in the region. 

Background

Ecuador was once one of the safest and most stable countries in Latin America. The nation now has the highest homicide rate in Latin America and is experiencing political turmoil, leading to firm government actions.1

Crime | Ecuador borders the two largest cocaine producers in the world: Colombia to the north and Peru to the east and south. With the extensive western coastline along the Pacific Ocean, busy seaports, an extensive road network, and weak border controls, Ecuador has become one of the primary dispatch points for the global cocaine trade.2 3 Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest city, has become a crucial transshipment point for drugs heading to Europe. The coastal provinces of Manabí and Esmeraldas are major trafficking corridors used to reach Mexico and Central America.4 Additionally, corruption within state institutions is compounded by spending cuts from 2017 on prisons and security forces neutered the work of law enforcement.5

In the 2010s, the most prominent international networks began to withdraw from the country after being debilitated by international law enforcement efforts. This led to a new generation of homegrown drug traffickers to fill the vacuum.6 In the late 2010s, gangs and criminal networks began uniting within the prisons to form powerful mafias that took over the penitentiary system, expanded across the country, and established themselves as key service providers to drug traffickers. The breakup of the most powerful of these groups, the Choneros, in 2021 created an array of splinter groups that violently contested control of the prisons, the streets, and drug trafficking corridors.7 These disputes led to a period of unprecedented criminal violence, characterized by rapidly rising homicide rates, terror tactics, and political violence. Once the recent crime wave hit, Ecuador was unprepared to deal with it as austerity measures by the previous president led to the dismantling of key institutions, including the Security Coordination Ministry and the Justice Ministry. These cuts weakened the state’s security provision and management of the prison system, leaving correctional facilities vulnerable to criminal control. In the words of a former military officer, “That’s when the security disorder began.”8

Political Instability | Political turmoil in Ecuador increased this past year due to presidential elections and protests organized by the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE). Ecuador’s presidential elections took place amidst the ongoing gang violence and high crime rates affecting the country. Security was the top issue for voters as incumbent President Noboa touted his hardline response to the violence by militarizing the streets, giving police heightened powers to use force and raid buildings, and by building new maximum-security prisons.9 Taking a hardline approach to crime hasn’t worked out for all candidates running for office though, as assassinations of political candidates who challenge criminal groups have surged. In the town of Duran, criminal organizations have coerced officials into providing them with protection and directly took over local governance structures.10 The state’s authority and legitimacy have weakened, while parallel criminal governance structures are expanding. Since 2022, 15 judges and prosecutors have been killed.11 

In September, protests erupted after President Noboa ended diesel subsidies as part of a fiscal adjustment to redirect funds to social and productive programs.12 Those programs included expanded social benefits, faster tax refunds and aid for small producers.13 After ending the diesel subsidies, gas prices rose from $1.80 to $2.80 severely affecting many Ecuadorian households’ bottom line.14

Recent increases of crime and political instability have not reached a crisis point. While there have been significant episodes of violence, political unrest, and gang activity,  it’s important to note that Ecuador still is only rated as “Exercise Increased Caution” by the U.S. Department of State.15 Additionally, Ecuador’s capital (Quito) is relatively safe for tourists when appropriate precautions are taken.16 Between January and July 2024, only 175 crimes against tourists were reported among over 357,000 visitors, marking a 40% decrease compared to the same period in 2023.17 In addition, the homicide rate in Quito was 9.7 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023, which is lower than many other major Latin American cities such as Caracas or Bogotá in Colombia.18 

Figure 2: Most of Ecuador is rated as a level 2 country (Exercise Increased/High Caution) by the U.S. and other countries. Some parts of the country though have different safety ratings.19

Crime and Safety

Pick-pocketing, robbery, and hotel room theft are the most common crimes. Areas that have a high presence of criminal organizations also experience high rates of violent crime;  travelers are much less likely to experience crime in popular tourist destinations but it is not impossible.20

  • Homicide Rates: Due to Ecuador’s geography, history of harboring criminal groups, and rise of homegrown street gangs, homicide rates have dramatically increased recently in Ecuador.21 The splintering of criminal groups as leaders are killed or captured has also contributed to this effect. Government data indicates a 37% increase in homicides nationwide between January and August 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.22 84% of those homicides are gang related.23 Projections for the end of year estimate around 9,100 deaths, equivalent to a rate of nearly 50 per 100,000 inhabitants.24 Compare this to the 4.6 per 100,000 rate of the U.S. in 2024.25 Travelers should note that they are largely isolated from homicides. Since September 2009, only four U.S. citizens in Ecuador have been victims of murder; in most cases, the victims and alleged perpetrators personally knew each other.26

Figure 1: In 2023, police recorded about 8,000 violent deaths. That is eight times more than in 2018 and puts Ecuador ahead of countries like Mexico and Colombia.27

  • Kidnapping: According to government figures, seven people are kidnapped daily in Ecuador.28 The most affected provinces are Guayas and Los Ríos, with the majority of kidnappings happening in the afternoon and night.29 Travelers are highly unlikely to be targeted as victims are usually extorted before the threat of kidnapping, or crimes of opportunity are carried out against locals in an attempt to drain their bank account.30 31
  • Terrorism: There is a low to moderate risk of terrorist violence, usually stemming from criminal organizations, in Ecuador.32 A disturbing trend of narco-terrorists using Vehicle-Borne Explosive Devices (VBIED) has increased the risk of collateral harm. On October 14, suspected narco-terrorists detonated a VBIED in Guayaquil outside the Nobis Building, near the Sheraton Hotel and Mall del Sol resulting in one death and 28 injuries.33 A second, unexploded VBIED was found in the vicinity of the blast. If both vehicles had detonated at maximum efficiency as intended, they would have been significantly more dangerous.34 This terrorist method has been utilized since 2021 to fight back against the government.35 The effective threat from these attacks is low, both due to the low number of these types of attacks and the pre-existing safety conditions of the areas they are carried out in.
  • Gangs/Criminal Organizations: Ecuador has about 22 gangs present within its borders, all of which have been designated as terrorist organizations by President Daniel Noboa.36 Noboa has also declared a state of internal armed warfare in January of 2024, which has allowed him to employ the armed forces in the country’s battle against these criminal groups.37 
  • Petty Crime: Crimes such as pickpocketing and theft are the crimes most likely to impact travelers. These are most common in crowded, public places.38 Robbery is unfortunately higher than in many other tourist destinations; in 2023 Quito averaged 601 robberies per 100,000 people.39 Compare this to New York City’s 99.6 robberies per 100,000 in 2024.40 Travelers can help minimize their risk of being targeted by limiting displays of wealth and keeping bags within sight.

Overall, criminal groups/organizations operating within Ecuador do not pose a large threat to travelers despite the headlines. Tourists aren’t generally targeted by these groups as they tend to fight amongst each other over territory disputes.41 The few attacks that harm travelers often occur in areas where tourists are advised to avoid. In 2012, a British woman and her Australian friend were kidnapped by armed gangs while canoeing in the Cuyabeno nature reserve before being rescued by the military.42 The Cuyabeno Nature Reserve is known for gang violence and is accordingly advised against all but essential travel.43 

Political Unrest

Protests, driven by political or economic demands, can form rapidly and become violent anywhere in Ecuador.44 

In the diesel subsidy protests this fall, there have been 473 people injured, two people killed, and 206 people arrested.45 During similar protests in 2022, eight people died and at least 640 were injured.46 Protests have spread to at least 12 provinces, with most of them being in the northern part of the country.47 Imbabura remains the epicenter of the demonstrations as talks between the government and Indigenous groups remain stalled.48 A recent demonstration in the capital Quito turned deadly when protestors burned tires, blocked roads, and faced off against police officers who responded with tear gas.49 CONAIE President Marlon Vargas said the group was ready to swamp the capital if the government fails to meet its demands in early October.50 

Another violent incident of civil disturbance led to an attack on the presidential convoy on October 7.51 While on a mission to deliver humanitarian aid to affected communities during a national strike, 350 people ambushed the convoy attacking it with molotov cocktails, rocks, and possible bullet damage.52 Along with the president, the convoy was also carrying United Nations (UN) and European Union (EU) diplomats. While nobody in the convoy was hurt, 17 military personnel were kidnapped and their whereabouts are unknown.53 The incident is being labeled an “assassination attempt” by the defense minister and the military is labeling the ambushers as terrorist groups.54 55

As a response to the protests and unrest, President Noboa has issued a 60-day state of emergency in 12 provinces. Those provinces are Pichincha, Cotopaxi, Tungurahua, Chimborazo, Bolivar, Canar, Azuay, Orellana, Sucumbios, Pastaza, Imbabura, and Carchi.56 He has also ordered all branches of the Armed Forces and the National Police to coordinate operations to maintain order, prevent violence, protect lives and public safety, and guarantee the right to free movement and economic activity.57 This tactic may have worked as on October 22, CONAIE President Vargas stated his organization would end its strikes/protests. This came after President Noboa said he would use the military to clear blocked highways.58 

Outlook

SafeAbroad Analysts expect that Ecuador’s political turmoil and security challenges will persist over the coming months and pose a moderate risk to travelers overall. 

Crime and Safety | SafeAbroad analysts expect violent crime rates to continue to increase in the coming years. This is due to shortcomings of President Noboa’s crime crackdown. His initial crackdown looked promising, as murder rates fell in 2024; however, the first half of 2025 though were Ecuador’s most violent months in its history.59 In 19 of the country’s 24 provinces, insecurity has worsened since January, with territorial battles pushing the homicide rate up.60 Corruption within state entities such as the police force, military, and judiciary is rampant which hinders prosecution of criminals, control of prisons, and investigation of crime.61 Additionally, the continuing splintering of gangs and criminals groups and the extradition, arrests, and execution of gang leaders will also contribute to the rise of crime in the country.62 

Criminal Organization Presence | SafeAbroad analysts expect gang activity and the presence of both foreign and domestic criminal organizations to remain steady into the foreseeable future. This is due to criminal groups being able to adapt under pressure. Additionally, past examples in other countries like Mexico or Columbia show that hardline approaches to combating criminal groups result in them changing localities and tactics. As mentioned above, corruption exists within state institutions which allows criminal groups to coerce government officials to look the other way. Other factors such as gang recruitment in poor neighborhoods and economic hardship will continue to entice low-income people in the country to join one of the various criminal groups in the country as a way to get out of their hardship.63 

Political Turmoil | SafeAbroad analysts expect political turmoil to persist in the country over the issue of alleged executive overreach as diesel subsidy protests die down. This is due to President Noboa introducing many constitutional and legal changes and issuing at least 14 security-related states of exception (where a number of civil rights are temporarily restricted) since the start of his term.64 He has also been at odds with the courts in his country and has sought to issue more executive influence over them.65 SafeAbroad analysts assess that the number of demonstrations will likely decrease despite civil discontent. President Naboa’s heavy handed approach in deterring and breaking up mass protests have been largely successful. One such example was his threat to use the military to clear blocked highways.66

  1.   https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/ecuadors-criminal-crisis/ 
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  2. https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/ecuador/109-paradise-lost-ecuadors-battle-organised-crime 
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  3.  https://insightcrime.org/ecuador-organized-crime-news/ecuador-profile/ 
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  4.  https://insightcrime.org/ecuador-organized-crime-news/ecuador-profile/ 
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  5.  https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/ecuador/109-paradise-lost-ecuadors-battle-organised-crime 
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  6.  https://insightcrime.org/ecuador-organized-crime-news/ecuador-profile/ 
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  7.  https://insightcrime.org/ecuador-organized-crime-news/ecuador-profile/ 
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  8. https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/ecuador/109-paradise-lost-ecuadors-battle-organised-crime 
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  9.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg7zpr7779go 
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  10.  https://insightcrime.org/investigations/from-gangs-gatekeepers-criminal-capital-duran/ 
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  11.  https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ecuadors-elections-organized-crime-and-security-challenges/ 
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  12. https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2025/10/06/ecuador-sate-of-emergency-protests-diesel-prices/5391759781638/ 
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  13. https://www.reuters.com/world/ecuador-withdraw-diesel-subsidy-redirect-funds-social-programs-2025-09-13/ 
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  14. https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2025/10/06/ecuador-sate-of-emergency-protests-diesel-prices/5391759781638/ 
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  15. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Ecuador.html 
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  16.  https://www.aol.com/quito-ecuador-safe-tourists-know-095700425.html 
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  17.  https://www.aol.com/quito-ecuador-safe-tourists-know-095700425.html 
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  18.  https://www.aol.com/quito-ecuador-safe-tourists-know-095700425.html 
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  19.  https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/americas/ecuador#images 
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  20. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Ecuador.html 
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  21. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuadors-crackdown-gangs-fractures-criminal-networks-fuels-bloodshed-2025-10-29/ 
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  22. https://ec.usembassy.gov/security-alert-continued-violence-and-security-operations-in-ecuador-update-for-u-s-citizens/ 
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  23. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuadors-crackdown-gangs-fractures-criminal-networks-fuels-bloodshed-2025-10-29/ 
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  24.  https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/ecuadors-criminal-crisis/ 
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  25.  https://www.vitalcitynyc.org/dataviz/murder-rate-in-the-united-states-per-100000-1950-2024 
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  26.  https://www.countryreports.org/country/Ecuador/crimes.htm 
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  27.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68778773 
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  28.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg7zpr7779go 
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  29. https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/seguridad/secuestros-en-ecuador-este-es-el-horario-preferido-para-cometer-el-delito/
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  30.  https://www.pichincha.com/blog/consejos-seguridad-secuestros-extorsiones 
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  31.  https://insightcrime.org/news/ecuadors-kidnapping-epidemic-told-by-a-survivor/ 
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  32. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Ecuador.html 
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  33.  https://ec.usembassy.gov/security-alert-explosion-reported-near-mall-del-sol-guayaquil-october-14-2025/ 
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  34. https://ec.usembassy.gov/security-alert-continued-violence-and-security-operations-in-ecuador-update-for-u-s-citizens/ 
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  35. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/16/explosions-hit-ecuador-local-criminal-gang-and-ex-farc-dissidents-blamed 
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  36. https://news.fiu.edu/2024/how-ecuador-went-from-being-latin-americas-model-of-stability-to-a-nation-in-crisis 
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  37. https://gordoninstitute.fiu.edu/news-events/the-policy-spotlight/2025/ecuadors-security-challenges-and-the-governments-response.html 
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  38.  https://galapagosinsiders.com/travel-blog/safety-ecuador-for-travelers/ 
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  39.  https://quitocomovamos.org/datos-al-paso/ 
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  40.  https://counciloncj.org/crime-in-new-york-city-what-you-need-to-know/ 
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  41.  https://happygringo.com/blog/ecuador-safety/ 
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  42. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14631515/Ecuadors-deadly-paradise-Brit-lynched-burned-alive-Brutal-gangs-hide-Amazon-rain-forest-eco-parks-Colombian-border-tourists-warned-not-enter.html 
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  43. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14631515/Ecuadors-deadly-paradise-Brit-lynched-burned-alive-Brutal-gangs-hide-Amazon-rain-forest-eco-parks-Colombian-border-tourists-warned-not-enter.html 
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  44. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Ecuador.html 
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  45.  https://efe.com/mundo/2025-11-13/ecuador-protestas-balance-final-muertos-heridos-detenidos/ 
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  46. https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2025/10/06/ecuador-sate-of-emergency-protests-diesel-prices/5391759781638/ 
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  47. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/demonstrators-in-ecuador-clash-with-police-amid-strike-over-fuel-prices 
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  48. https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2025/10/06/ecuador-sate-of-emergency-protests-diesel-prices/5391759781638/ 
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  49. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/demonstrators-in-ecuador-clash-with-police-amid-strike-over-fuel-prices 
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  50. https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2025/10/06/ecuador-sate-of-emergency-protests-diesel-prices/5391759781638/ 
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  51. https://ictnews.org/news/ecuador-president-daniel-noboas-motorcade-attacked-with-rocks-in-what-government-calls-an-assassination-attempt/ 
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  52. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-detains-five-after-attack-president-noboas-car-minister-says-2025-10-07/ 
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  53.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq8ewdedp1yo 
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  54. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-detains-five-after-attack-president-noboas-car-minister-says-2025-10-07/ 
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  55.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq8ewdedp1yo 
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  56. https://www.plenglish.com/news/2025/10/06/noboa-extends-state-of-emergency-in-ecuador-due-to-insecurity/ 
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  57. https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2025/10/06/ecuador-sate-of-emergency-protests-diesel-prices/5391759781638/ 
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  58. https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-indigenous-protests-diesel-noboa-subsidy-521777333a079090e8dee4698fc0ca70 
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  59. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-homicides-increase-40-through-july-over-5000-killed-2025-08-21/ 
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  60. https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/ecuador/109-paradise-lost-ecuadors-battle-organised-crime 
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  61. https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/ecuador/109-paradise-lost-ecuadors-battle-organised-crime 
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  62.  https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/ecuadors-criminal-crisis/ 
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  63. https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/ecuador/109-paradise-lost-ecuadors-battle-organised-crime 
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  64. https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/ecuador/109-paradise-lost-ecuadors-battle-organised-crime 
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  65. https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/ecuador/109-paradise-lost-ecuadors-battle-organised-crime 
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  66. https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-indigenous-protests-diesel-noboa-subsidy-521777333a079090e8dee4698fc0ca70 ↩︎

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