Mexico: 2026 World Cup Risk Assessment

Overview

SafeAbroad analysts have assessed the security environment surrounding the 2026 World Cup games in Mexico presents a moderate risk to travelers. This includes general crime and safety issues in each host city and the surrounding areas taking into account the presence of Mexican Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs), commonly known as cartels. Other demographics and authority-based safety issues are discussed as well. 

Key Takeaways
  1. Three Mexican cities (Monterrey, Guadalajara, and Mexico City) will host part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Competition. These three cities have different risk levels for travelers as the security/safety situation in each one differs in terms of where its crime rate is headed (increasing, decreasing, or stagnant). Increasing military and police presence, and offering armored vehicles for wealthier residents or travelers are tactics the Mexican government and other entities are using to secure the cities and keep tourists safe. SafeAbroad travelers can also take various precautions to reduce their likelihood of being victims of crime or cartel violence. 
  2. Tourists are unlikely to be directly targeted by the cartels or other organized crime groups. The biggest threat travelers face from these groups is getting caught up in their activities by mistake. There are various steps tourists can take to reduce their chances of becoming a victim of cartel violence. This includes traveling in groups, not going outside tourist areas, only using official forms of transportation, and not traveling at nighttime.
  3. There is cartel activity in each of the host cities. The number of cartel groups operating in each city varies, but the two most prominent groups are the Cártel del Noreste (CDN) and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). Each of the host cities has experienced episodes of cartel violence which are likely to continue. 
  4. Illegitimate “police” may try to stop travelers for personal gain. Unofficial actors are present in areas of Mexico where there’s gaps in formal authority. These actors will try to present themselves as legitimate authority in order to scam travelers. 
  5. Women, LGBTQ+, racial, ethnic, and religious minorities may face increased challenges when traveling through Mexico. Mexico has one of the highest femicide rates in the world creating further risks for female travelers.1 Racial, ethnic, and religious minorities and LGBTQ+ travelers may face discrimination, harassment, prejudice, and violence despite legal protections. 
Background

From June 11 to July 19, three countries will be hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup: the United States, Canada, and Mexico.2 This is the first time in FIFA history the tournament will be divided among three countries.3 Of the 16 host cities, three will be in Mexico: Guadalajara, Mexico City, and Monterrey.4 The three Mexican stadiums to host part of the World Cup will be Estadio Azteca (Mexico City), Estadio Guadalajara, and Estadio Monterrey.5 Estadio Azteca will host the opening match of the World Cup and four other matches. Estadio Guadalajara will host four matches of the tournament. Estadio Monterrey will also host four matches in the tournament.6 

While millions of tourists visit Mexico each year without any problems, it’s important to be aware of potential security risks in the country. The Mexican government has been embroiled in a decades-long conflict with multiple powerful criminal organizations known as cartels. These groups procure and traffic drugs in the United States, and as a result have grown into large organizations. In the past, cartels mainly clashed with one another and the Mexican State over trafficking territories. In recent years these groups have diversified their operations into tourism, agriculture, and operating extortion rackets, increasing their levels of violence across Mexican society.7 

Over the past two decades, a new strategy of targeting criminal leaders by the Mexican government has led to cartels becoming militarized. This militarization has allowed cartels to displace state control of many areas. Smaller criminal organizations are faced with tougher competition for the same routes, leading to them fighting harder and more often with both the government and other cartels. Some groups, finding themselves pushed out of the most profitable parts of the drug trade, have resorted to other revenue streams, such as kidnapping, carjacking, and extortion.8 Kidnapping of American tourists is still rare; the majority of those few Americans that are taken are green card holders or dual citizens.9

Safety in World Cup Host Cities

The U.S. Department of State recommends “increased caution” in Mexico City and Monterrey; Guadalajara is rated as “reconsider travel.”10 

Monterrey | While the city’s crime rate has been decreasing over the years, it still presents moderate risk. Primary risks to travelers include shootouts between cartel gunmen and police as well as clashes over territorial control.11 Despite its status as a major industrial and business hub in northern Mexico, Monterrey and its surrounding region remain affected by organized-crime violence. One of the most violent incidents in the city’s history was the 2011 Casino Royale fire, which resulted in 52 deaths and over a dozen injuries, marking one of the worst atrocities in Nuevo León.12

The violence in the state is driven largely by competition between groups such as the Cártel del Noreste (CDN) and other criminal organizations fighting for control of trafficking routes, fuel-theft networks, and extortion rackets.13 Tourists should avoid the outskirts of town and higher-crime neighborhoods such as Independencia, Niño Artillero and Valle de Santa Lucía. Conversely, the safest areas are Barrio Antiguo, Zona Rosa, Macroplaza, and Parque Fundidora, where there is a heavy security presence.14 Travelers should note that Monterrey Stadium is located right outside the city, in the suburb of Guadeloupe. A gender violence alert in 2016 for Guadalupe shows that even in moderately safe neighborhoods, violence against women can still occur.15 To combat violent crime, the city has installed 2,000 cameras, deployed local police and National Guard patrols in industrial and tourist zones, and established specialized units to address specific types of crimes.16

Guadalajara | The state of Jalisco is the site of significant conflict and violence from cartels, terrorist groups, gangs, and criminal organizations.17 Guadalajara remains a focal point of cartel-related violence largely driven by the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), one of Mexico’s most powerful and violent criminal groups. In May 2024, coordinated attacks across the state, including near Guadalajara, left at least nine people dead, underscoring CJNG’s control over key territories and transport routes.18 Earlier incidents, such as a 2023 shootout that killed five suspects in Zapopan, highlight how urban violence can spill into commercial and tourist areas.19

The highways surrounding Guadalajara, especially Federal Highway 110 between Tuxpan and Michoacan and Federal Highway 80 south of Cocula, are dangerous due to higher levels of cartel activity and criminal checkpoints.20 U.S. authorities warn that cartel operations in the region include kidnapping, extortion, and road blockades. Roughly 47% of violence involving the CJNG and affiliates consists of clashes with other armed groups, representing the largest share of their reported activity. Clashes with security forces account for about 17% of the group’s activity.21 The remaining 36% is directed towards local civilians which can include tourists. Travelers should stick to populated areas, keep track of possessions, never walk alone at night, and avoid isolated routes after dark. Group travel is safest, as being with others reduces the risk of being targeted.22 The safest areas in Guadalajara are Zapopan (where Guadalajara Stadium is located), Colonia Americana, Centro Histórico, Tlaquepaque, and Chapalita, which have stronger police presence and lower violent-crime rates.23

Mexico City | Mexico City has some violent crime and a significant level of petty crime in both tourist and non-tourist areas. There is also a risk of violence from criminal organizations. While not as common as other cities, cartel violence does occur. In 2020, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) launched an attack in an upscale neighborhood, ambushing the city’s police chief Omar García Harfuch.24 In May 2025, two aides to the mayor were shot dead near a metro station, an act suspected to be linked to CJNG.25 Though such attacks are rare, they reflect attempts by criminal groups to intimidate the government. Organized crime in the city also includes drug distribution in nightclubs and extortion of restaurants.26 Authorities have responded by placing the navy in control of the city’s main airport and assigning military oversight of customs and infrastructure projects.27 

SafeAbroad Travelers are most likely to face opportunistic petty crimes like pickpocketing, theft, or bag-snatching, especially in public transport hubs and areas such as Colonia Doctores, Buenavista, and Centro Histórico.28 Violent crimes, including express kidnappings, are more common in Iztapalapa, Gustavo A Madero, Cuauhtémoc, and Venustiano Carranza. Safe neighborhoods include Nochebuena, Roma Sur, Nápoles, Piedad Narvarte, Reforma Iztaccihuatl Norte, Centro Histórico, and Polanco.29 Estadio Azteca is located in the Coyoacan neighborhood of the city. This neighborhood records very low crime, with some of the lowest homicide rankings in the entire country.30

Navigating Corruption and Informal Authority in Mexico

In parts of Mexico, gaps in formal state authority can create environments where unofficial actors attempt to present themselves as authorities or demand improper payments.31 SafeAbroad Travelers should not assume that every directive or request comes from a legitimate official source. Good risk management means using verified institutions, avoiding informal systems, and escalating concerns to program staff or consular authorities. 

  • Rely on formal program safety systems
    • Complete all pre-departure safety steps (orientation, contacts, itinerary sharing). 
    • U.S. citizens should register for STEP to enable rapid assistance.32 
  • Avoid making unofficial payments
    • If someone requests cash or “fees” outside of posted rules or receipts — treat them as suspect.
  • Assess risk at the regional, city, and local level
    • The Department of State gives risks at the regional level and for some of the largest cities. Travelers should also take care to learn about the risks of specific neighborhoods or areas of the cities they will visit before departure. 
  • Practice strong situational awareness
    • Avoid displaying valuables or presenting oneself as a target (solo late-night movement, excessive tourism signaling).33
  • Use vetted transport and accommodations
    • Prefer institution-approved lodging and trusted ride services; avoid unmarked taxis and unofficial drivers, especially at night.34
  • Follow structured communication protocols
    • Keep your program supervisor updated on location changes or incidents. 
    • Document any suspicious interactions and report immediately. 
  • Avoid entering “grey-authority” spaces
    • Bypass unofficial roadblocks, unsanctioned tours, or individuals claiming special authority without visible credentials. 
  • Have clear emergency escalation steps
    • Carry embassy/consulate info, program emergency numbers, and travel insurance contacts at all times.35
Demographic Safety Issues 

When you travel abroad in Mexico, your gender, sexual orientation/identity, ethnicity/racial background, and faith identity all shape how you may experience social dynamics, authority interactions, and potential risks. Mexico has formal legal protections, yet the practical reality often remains challenging. For example: 

  • Violence against women is pervasive: around 66% of women aged 15+ in Mexico report having experienced some form of gender-based violence in their lifetime.36
  • The “femicide” rate (women killed because of gender-based violence) is one of the highest globally.37
  • For LGBTQI individuals, despite legal progress (including same-sex marriage in many states), discrimination, harassment and violence remain widespread, especially for transgender persons.38
  • Transgender women face especially acute risks: Mexico is often cited as having one of the highest rates of murders motivated by transphobia.39
  • Impunity is an enabler of targeted violence. Authorities frequently fail to investigate and punish gender-based and anti-LGBTQI violence effectively, which increases risk.40 
  • If you are a religious minority, ethnic or racial minority, or speak with an accent/geography that marks you as foreign, you may be more visible and thus more vulnerable to harassment, informal authority demands, or predatory extortion.
Advice for Travelers

Actions travelers can take to minimize exposure to cartel activity or violence include the following:  

  • Choose hotels or Airbnbs in reputable neighborhoods. Look for well-lit properties with security measures. 
  • Avoid carrying large amounts of cash or valuables. 
  • Consider “hardening” yourself as a target by choosing backpacks and purses with cut-proof straps and clothing with several layers of Velcro and snaps securing valuables. 
  • Download and use safety apps like GeoSure and Noonlight. 
  • Stay alert and aware of your surroundings, especially at night and on public transportation. 
  • Avoid public transportation. Instead, use authorized taxis from reputable companies or ride-sharing apps like Uber or Didi. 
  • Avoid unmarked taxis, particularly at night. 
  • Stick to well-lit, established bars and clubs in safe areas. Let someone know where you’re going and when you expect to be back. 
  • Book tours with reputable companies and avoid venturing off on your own.41
On the Horizon

Cartel Violence | SafeAbroad analysts expect that cartel violence will continue to be present but largely avoid targeting American citizens. Cartels and other organized criminal groups in Mexico  typically avoid targeting foreign tourists, particularly Americans, due to the large attention such actions draw from both the Mexican government and U.S. federal agencies, such as the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). They are not looking for increased scrutiny, as many of their leaders are in jail, wanted, or have been killed by the Mexican government. The main threat tourists face from cartels is being caught between their crossfire or being in the wrong place at the wrong time.42 If SafeAbroad travelers follow the above steps, they will have a low-moderate risk of being victims of cartel violence and crime

Corruption and Informal Authority | SafeAbroad analysts assess that unofficial actors engaging in fraudulent activities against tourists will likely increase at the time of the World Cup. The millions of people expected to attend the matches and associated events are expected to encourage this kind of illegal activity, as these participants represent new potential victims.43 SafeAbroad travelers will have a lower risk of falling victim to this type of scheme if they follow the steps mentioned above and take additional precautions, such as limiting displays of wealth and the cash you carry in public. 

Special Demographics | SafeAbroad analysts assess that gender-based violence, discrimination/harassment of LGBTQ+ individuals, and prejudice against religious, ethnic, and racial minorities will likely persist into the foreseeable future. Female, LGBTQ, religious, ethnic, and racial minority travelers have a higher risk of being victims to crime, discrimination, harassment, or unlawful arrest/detention by government officials. Deeply held beliefs are unlikely to change radically over a short amount of time. 

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  2.  https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026 
    ↩︎
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  4.  https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/host-cities 
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  6.  https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/fifa-world-cup-2026-hosts-cities-dates-usa-mexico-canada 
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  7.  https://www.globalguardian.com/global-digest/is-mexico-safe 
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  8.  https://www.globalguardian.com/global-digest/is-mexico-safe 
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  10.  https://travel.state.gov/en/international-travel/travel-advisories/mexico.html 
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  11.  https://sixmexico.com/blog/how-safe-is-monterrey-mexico 
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  12.  https://www.globalguardian.com/global-digest/los-zetas-cartel 
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  13.  https://www.visionofhumanity.org/ten-least-peaceful-states-in-mexico-in-2025/ 
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  14.  https://www.globalguardian.com/global-digest/is-mexico-safe 
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  15. https://www.gob.mx/conavim/prensa/se-emite-alerta-de-violencia-de-genero-en-23-municipios-de-veracruz-chiapas-y-nuevo-leon ↩︎
  16. https://sixmexico.com/blog/how-safe-is-monterrey-mexico ↩︎
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    ↩︎
  18. https://english.elpais.com/international/2025-04-24/cartel-violence-erupts-in-michoacan-jalisco-and-guanajuato-in-a-new-wave-of-attacks.html ↩︎
  19. https://justiceinmexico.org/violence-against-police-officers/#:~:text=12/01/2023%20(written,the%20New%20Generation%20Jalisco%20Cartel. 
    ↩︎
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  21.  https://www.globalguardian.com/global-digest/cjng-cartel 
    ↩︎
  22.  https://travelnoire.com/is-guadalajara-safe 
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  23.  https://www.pilotplans.com/blog/is-guadalajara-safe 
    ↩︎
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    ↩︎
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    ↩︎
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    ↩︎
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    ↩︎
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  29.  https://www.bhtp.com/blog/safe-travel-mexico-city 
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  31. Lomnitz, Claudio. Sovereignty and Extortion: A New State Form in Mexico. Duke University Press, 2024. JSTOR, https://doi.org/10.2307/jj.16624616. Accessed 21 Nov. 2025. ↩︎
  32. https://sa.usembassy.gov/message-for-u-s-citizens-re-enroll-in-the-new-smart-traveler-enrollment-program-step/#:~:text=You%20can%20enroll%20multiple%20trips,nearest%20U.S.%20embassy%20or%20consulate.
    ↩︎
  33.  https://studentsabroad.com/handbook/strategies-to-reduce-risk.php 
    ↩︎
  34.  https://www.globalsupport.harvard.edu/travel/country-guides/mexico 
    ↩︎
  35. https://sa.usembassy.gov/message-for-u-s-citizens-re-enroll-in-the-new-smart-traveler-enrollment-program-step/#:~:text=You%20can%20enroll%20multiple%20trips,nearest%20U.S.%20embassy%20or%20consulate. 
    ↩︎
  36.  https://www.visionofhumanity.org/violence-against-women-in-mexico/ 
    ↩︎
  37.   https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/femicide-rates-by-country 
    ↩︎
  38.  https://outrightinternational.org/our-work/americas/mexico 
    ↩︎
  39. https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/publications/opinion-trans-rights-mexico/
    ↩︎
  40.  https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/violence-against-women-is-at-the-center-of-mexicos-security-crisis/
    ↩︎
  41.  https://www.bhtp.com/blog/safe-travel-mexico-city ↩︎
  42.  https://www.globalguardian.com/global-digest/cjng-cartel 
    ↩︎
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