Overview

SafeAbroad analysts assess that rising tensions across Eastern Europe, driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, pose a moderate, but growing threat to international students in the region. Countries such as Poland, Romania, and Estonia are experiencing airspace violations, drone intrusions, and covert maritime activity. These developments, along with cyberattacks, Russian nuclear posturing in Belarus, and fears of further territorial expansion, have raised regional security concerns. While conflict beyond Ukraine remains unlikely due to NATO deterrence, the security environment is increasingly volatile. This report outlines the primary risks to students in Eastern Europe and offers guidance for staying informed and safe in this evolving context.

Key Takeaways

1. Russia’s military activity has increased regional instability in Eastern Europe. Countries such as Poland and Romania have reported airspace violations and drone intrusions, while the Baltic States face maritime provocations and border threats, raising safety concerns for students.
2. Non-conventional attacks are likely to persist across the region. Russia continues to employ cyberattacks, weaponized migration, and covert tactics that have had limited effects on students at this time, but signal preparations for further destabilization and pose a future risk.
3. Students should prioritize safety by avoiding high-risk areas such as the Russian border, and critical infrastructure such as military installations, oil refineries, and powerplants. Border areas have seen repeated airspace violations by both aircraft and projectiles, while critical infrastructure has been the repeated target of probing cyberattacks. These regions also face heightened risks in the event of a targeted attack, which is unlikely at this time. 

Background

Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, continued Russian aggression poses an increased risk to travelers.

Russian forces began their invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, which resulted in thousands of international students being trapped in the country. In the months following the invasion, the number of students studying abroad in the country drastically decreased from 100,000 to less than 10,000.¹ The situation remains volatile and is rapidly changing, resulting in study abroad programs continuing to limit or eliminate their programs in Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus in order to protect students.² 

Education in Ukraine, at both the primary and secondary levels, has been heavily disrupted as mass displacement has led many students to continue their education at other institutions in the region.³ The outbreak of the war has caused the cancellation of study abroad programs in both Ukraine and Russia.⁴ Many are turning towards higher education in neighboring Eastern European countries that present opportunities for affordable and immersive study abroad experiences. Though these countries are not direct participants in the Russo-Ukrainian War, they are still impacted by rising Russian aggression. 

Current Security Environment in Eastern Europe

Spillover from the invasion of Ukraine has already impacted international education programs in neighboring areas including Poland, Romania, and the Baltic States. With the recent escalation of military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe now faces not only the risk of further spillover but also the possibility of deliberate Russian advancement in the region. Given Putin’s long-standing ambition to restore aspects of the Soviet Union and his use of the Russkiy Mir ideology to justify territorial expansion, neighboring former Soviet states may face heightened threats in the near future.

• Russia has begun to violate airspace regulations in both Poland and Romania. On June 9 and June 13, Russian reconnaissance aircraft in Polish airspace were intercepted by British fighter jets stationed in Poland.⁵ The Polish Armed Forces believe that this was done by Russia to test NATO countries’ readiness systems. Due to Poland only identifying Russian aircraft with the help of the UK, Russia is likely aware of Eastern Europe’s less effective readiness systems. Additionally, the Romanian parliament passed a law on February 26 that allows the country to shoot down drones that violate its airspace.⁶ This was passed after several incidents of Russian drones violating Romania’s airspace.
• Russia has been hacking and covertly attacking critical infrastructure, while also weaponizing migration. 
• The destruction of a sea cable on December 25, 2025 could have had more devastating effects on Estonia’s power grid. Power flow was reduced by nearly two thirds, but the deployment of reserve power stores meant there were minimal disruptions. Similar actions by Russia may cause disruptions in essential electrical services to students across Europe, as the majority of Europe relies on undersea cables.⁷⁸ Sea cables also are responsible for an estimated USD $10 trillion of financial transactions every day, as they serve as a medium for 95% of global data flows.⁹ Attacks on these cables directly threatens the reliability of financial institutions and services.
• Russia has weaponized migration by partnering with Belarus to create humanitarian crises. Transporting migrants from the Middle East and Africa, Russia has targeted Eastern European nations by attempting to overrun their customs systems by promising easier passage into Europe.¹⁰ Border areas have seen both police and migrants become violent, presenting a threat to student travelers in the area.¹¹ The main target of this hybrid-warfare technique has been Poland. 
• Russian cyberhackers opened a dam remotely in Norway on April 7 this year releasing water for 4 hours before being detected.¹² No one was injured, but the hack shows a pattern of targeting critical infrastructure. Cyberattacks on energy infrastructure can also disrupt ATM services. These attacks usually take the form of DDos attacks, where bots overwhelm websites disrupting connectivity. Ukraine has been the primary target of these attacks since the start of the conflict; other European neighbors have also seen many attacks including: Poland with 36, Lithuania with 20, and Finland with 9 different cyberattacks.¹³ These disruptions mean that access to electronic payment methods can be limited or shut down, including the ability to withdraw cash.
• Russia is actively testing other neighbors’ responses to provocations–particularly Estonia. The Baltic Sea has become of strategic interest to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. This poses a serious security threat to the Baltic States, especially Estonia, as it borders the Baltic Sea near Russia. Russia has deployed a shadow fleet of oil tankers and a fighter jet in Estonian territory to circumvent Western sanctions, heightening security concerns in the Baltic region.¹⁴ Along with the suspected destruction of Baltic pipelines, hybrid warfare, and other forms of provocation, Russian actions continue to threaten systems critical to student safety. 

On the Horizon

What to watch for in late 2025:

• Continued airspace violations and clandestine sea travel could imply future operations in the region. Russia has frequently violated airspace regulations before potential operations. Before Sweden and Finland joined NATO, Russia frequently monitored the airspace, causing concern within the nations. After these nations joined NATO, airspace violations have significantly decreased. Before the invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian border patrol spotted a Russian Mil Mi-8 helicopter advancing into Ukrainian territory. Awareness of these indications of aggression will help students be appropriately prepared should Russia take more severe action. 
• Further unconventional attacks are expected. Cyberattacks are used to weaken the infrastructure critical to countering Russian operations. These types of attacks are the most likely to impact student travelers, as they can disrupt essential services including electricity, cell service, and financial institutions.
• Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons in Western Russia and Belarus, including those placed in Belarus in March 2024, is likely a deterrent against NATO, and does not necessarily indicate that Russian intends to use them. However, this move escalates tensions and places Eastern Europe—particularly its students—in a more precarious and potentially dangerous environment.¹⁵

Traveler recommendations:

• Travelers should monitor announcements, advisories, and news updates. Travelers should always remain up to date on the current situation in the location where they study. This includes subscribing to real-time emergency announcements.
• Have a contingency plan. Ensure access to emergency contacts, evacuation routes, emergency shelters, and local support networks in case of sudden escalation or disruption.
• Travelers should be prepared for temporary disruptions, as most Russian provocations—such as cyberattacks or threatening rhetoric—are intended as political signals rather than serious threats. Travelers are advised to keep battery packs and other portable charging devices charged and on hand in the event that essential services are disrupted. While various forms of interference are possible, the strong NATO presence in Eastern Europe makes significant escalation unlikely.
• Travelers should avoid border areas and strategic infrastructure, as Russian advances have historically targeted these zones and military sites. Staying in locations away from conflict-adjacent regions significantly increases safety.
• Due to the risk of ATM disruptions, it is advised to carry some cash. Travelers should bring enough to cover 1-2 days worth of expenses in various secured locations (a zippered purse, wallet, suitcase, etc.). This cash should be a limited amount and kept in case of emergencies.
• Europe’s emergency systems number is 112. Calls are toll free and should be made in the event of an emergency. 

1. https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3997664-about-10000-foreign-students-remain-in-ukraine.html
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2. https://thedailytexan.com/2022/03/10/ut-study-abroad-programs-canceled-in-ukraine-and-russia-due-to-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/ ↩︎
3. https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2025/july/war-s-educational-toll–nyu-tandon-research-reveals-78-000-ukrai.html ↩︎
4. https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2022/03/03/russia-ukraine-war-disrupts-study-abroad-programs 
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5. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russian-aircraft-intercepted-over-baltic-friday-poland-says-2025-06-13/
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6. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romanian-lawmakers-adopt-law-shoot-down-drones-breaching-airspace-2025-02-26/
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7. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/27/europe/nato-defense-baltic-undersea-cables-intl-cmd/index.html 
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8. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/12/securing-europes-subsea-data-cables?lang=en 
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9. https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/2025/08/the-scale-of-russian–sabotage-operations–against-europes-critical–infrastructure/
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10. https://www.hoover.org/research/weaponization-migration-powerful-instrument-russias-hybrid-toolbox 
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11. https://www.hoover.org/research/weaponization-migration-powerful-instrument-russias-hybrid-toolbox 
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12. https://www.reuters.com/technology/norway-spy-chief-blames-russian-hackers-dam-sabotage-april-2025-08-13/ 
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13. https://cyberconflicts.cyberpeaceinstitute.org/impact/sectors/financial 
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14. https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/20/europe/russian-fighter-jet-shadow-fleet-intl-cmd
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15. https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_weapons_in_belarus_what_we_know
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